Recently, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, was upbraided by one of her fellow progressives for rarely being present in her own district. We may now know why.

It turns out that while the Duchess of Defund has been advocating for less policing across the nation — with statements like, "defunding police means defunding police. It does not mean budget tricks or funny math" — her own district could use some more police. A lot more.

A deep-dive analysis of AOC’s 14th Congressional District reveals that crime is skyrocketing in her area — and is likely to get even worse. While the representative engages in street theater in Washington — pantomiming being handcuffed for the cameras — her constituents are dealing with genuine criminals. The results are shocking.

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The Numbers Don’t Lie 

The methodology for the analysis was simple. According to Ocasio-Cortez’s official government webpage, her 14th congressional district represents more than 650,000 people from the following neighborhoods: 

Astoria, College Point, Corona, North Corona, East Elmhurst, Elmhurst, Jackson Heights, Sunnyside and Woodside in Queens; 

Pelham Gardens, City Island, Country Club, Van Nest, Morris Park, Parkchester, Pelham Bay, Schuylerville, Allerton and Throggs Neck in the Bronx 

So: by simply correlating those areas to the NYPD’s official precinct webpages, we find that AOC’s district encompasses all or part of the following precincts: the 43, 45, and 49 in the Bronx; and the 108, 109, 110, 114, and 115 in Queens.

The NYPD publishes weekly crime statistics — known as "CompStats" — on its official webpage, broken down by precinct. These stats capture the numbers of the "seven major" (most serious) felonies: murder, rape, robbery, felonious assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto. These "index crimes" are the ones that have the greatest impact on citizens’ quality of life and are how crime is tracked across the city. The NYPD also publishes stats on the number of shooting incidents and shooting victims in each precinct. 

A simple accounting of these numbers during the representative’s tenure (AOC entered Congress in 2019) will therefore give us an unbiased, empirical view of the street conditions that her constituents experience daily.

Let’s begin with the numbers through July 24-29 week of the year. The chart for the seven majors in AOC’s district looks like this:

Total Major Crimes 

2022 2021 2020 

9,862 6,842 6,281 

So: AOC’s district is up in major felonies so far this year by 44.13% over 2021. And it’s up a whopping 57.01% over the last two years.

Let’s just say, with those numbers: Were she a precinct commander, she’d better have some answers for the chief of department. (For context: police commanders are often called on the carpet for even single-digit increases). 

Now let’s look at shootings for the same period. For shooting victims, the chart looks like this:

Shooting Victims 

2022 2021 2020 

90 86 64 

So, AOC is up so far this year 4.65% over 2021, and 40.62% since 2020.

Forget the chief of department. She’s going to the police commissioner’s office.

Now let’s go to shooting incidents. Here’s the chart:

Shooting Incidents 

2022 2021 2020 

75 75 51 

So, AOC is even since last year on incidents, but up 47.05% over the last two years.

There are times statistics can be misleading. Not here. To boil it down: As of the year’s 29th week, AOC had 22 more people shot in 2021 over 2020; she had 26 more shot in 2022 than at the same time in 2020. That means, over the last two years, 48 more human beings were shot in AOC’s district by this point over the last two years. Many of them undoubtedly people of color. Many of them undoubtedly dead.

Tellingly, the congresswoman stated the following in a July 2021 interview: "there is an increase in crime and in incidents of violence as the country really reopens up from the pandemic." But by that logic, her shootings should be spiking this year, after the lockdown ended, no? They have in fact been rising since two years ago; that is, since 2020, when the lockdown was well underway.

Oh, and what also occurred in 2020? The city caved to activists and the NYPD was defunded by $1.5b. Which AOC lamented was not enough. 

Ah, but I can hear the rejoinder to all this. "COVID somehow skewed the numbers!" "2020 and 2021 were anomalous years!" Fair enough. Let’s look at 2019 — the first year of AOC’s tenure in Congress.

For the seven majors through the year’s 29th week, the chart looks like this:

Total Major Crimes 

2022 2019

9,862 6,280

So year-to-date, from pre-COVID to now, AOC is up 57.03%. 

She’s going to the PC’s office, alright. And she better bring a union rep.

Let’s try one last simple exercise. If we take the average number of seven majors per month so far this year and extrapolate those out for the rest of the year, we can get a predictive year-end number for 2022. That chart, as compared to the published final numbers for her pre-COVID, first-year-in-office, looks like this:

Total Crimes 

2022* 2019

17,684 11,709 

*Projected 

Meaning: At the current pace, AOC will finish this year with a 51.02% increase in major crime since her first year in office.

A gloss on all this is what the representative has had to say on the crime issue since she entered Congress — and what she hasn’t said. Despite being from Westchester, she references her "bodega" life and upbringing ad nauseum. Yet amidst the outcry over the prosecution of bodega worker Jose Alba — much of it from the Hispanic community — the representative said … nothing.

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In response to Donald Trump’s 2019 so-called "Muslim ban," AOC positioned herself as an outspoken supporter of the Yemeni-American bodega association (she even called for bodegas to boycott The NY Post). But when the same association held a joint press conference in support of the Yemeni-American owner of Alba’s bodega, the representative said … nothing.

A lioness of women’s rights — it was at an abortion-related protest that AOC mimed her handcuffing. Her response to New York’s Asian women being stabbed 40 times in their homes, spit on, beaten, and pushed in front of trains in the subways, has been a tweet supporting — of course! — more funding for "housing and treatment for those suffering with mental illness." In a city that spent $2.8 billion on homeless services in fiscal year 2022. 

Meanwhile, hate crimes are up in her district 81.25% over the last two years.

I grew up in the representative’s district. I know many of the neighborhoods. I suspect I speak for many when I say: Forget the union rep, AOC. Maybe it’s time you just cleaned out your locker. 

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