Footwear retailer Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ: SCVL) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 7.5% year on year to $277.7 million. Its GAAP profit of $0.34 per share decreased from $0.63 in the same quarter last year.

Is now the time to buy SCVL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

Shoe Carnival’s first quarter results reflected a continuation of industry-wide sales challenges in family footwear, with management attributing the decline to cautious consumer behavior—especially among lower-income households. CEO Mark Worden highlighted that muted tax refund season spending and consumer concerns about potential price increases kept some customers on the sidelines. While the Shoe Carnival banner experienced sales declines consistent with broader trends, management called out Shoe Station’s outperformance, noting it achieved positive comparable sales growth and margin improvement through its premium product assortment and upgraded store environment. CFO Patrick Edwards pointed to the deliberate investment in the rebanner initiative as the primary short-term cost driver, stating that increased store-level profit contribution at Shoe Station locations supported the company’s confidence in accelerating the transformation strategy.

Looking forward, management’s guidance is anchored in the expectation that Shoe Station’s accelerated expansion and continued customer traction will moderate company-wide sales declines in the second half of the year. Mark Worden expressed cautious optimism for the upcoming back-to-school season, citing a “compelling assortment in hand” and stable product costs. He noted, “Shoe Station is outpacing the industry and Shoe Carnival quarter after quarter for over two years now,” and outlined plans to have Shoe Station represent over 80% of the store fleet by March 2027. The leadership team believes the ongoing rebanner strategy and strong inventory positioning, combined with a debt-free balance sheet, provide flexibility to capitalize on market opportunities and protect margins against potential supply chain disruptions or tariff impacts.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s performance to ongoing investments in the Shoe Station rebanner initiative, which drove outperformance relative to the broader industry and informed a major shift in store strategy.

• Shoe Station’s outsized performance: The Shoe Station banner achieved positive comparable sales growth and expanded its market presence, outperforming both the Shoe Carnival banner and industry peers. Management attributed this to a premium assortment, higher service levels, and strong customer response in both affluent and rural areas.
• Rebanner strategy acceleration: Early results from converting Shoe Carnival stores to Shoe Station exceeded expectations, prompting the company to increase its rebanner target to 75 stores this year and set a new goal for Shoe Station to reach over 80% of the store fleet by March 2027.
• Product mix and category trends: Athletic footwear remained comparatively resilient, with performance running brands delivering double-digit growth at Shoe Station. Women’s nonathletic and children’s categories remained under pressure in lower-income segments, but Shoe Station outperformed in dress and casual categories due to targeted assortment upgrades.
• Inventory and supply chain approach: Shoe Carnival maintained elevated inventory levels, leveraging its cash position to secure key products at competitive costs. This move was designed to ensure product availability for back-to-school and holiday seasons and to potentially benefit from margin expansion if costs increase due to tariffs or supply chain disruptions.
• Financial flexibility and capital deployment: The company’s debt-free balance sheet and increased liquidity enabled simultaneous investment in the rebanner initiative and inventory, positioning Shoe Carnival to pursue opportunistic M&A and withstand industry volatility without pulling back on strategic priorities.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook is shaped by the accelerated Shoe Station rollout, evolving consumer trends, and ongoing cost management measures.

• Shoe Station scaling and growth: The expansion of Shoe Station is expected to moderate overall sales declines and eventually drive company-wide comparable store growth by the second half of next year. Management is targeting at least 51% of the store base as Shoe Station by mid-2026 and over 80% by March 2027, anticipating the premium banner will offset persistent weakness in the traditional Shoe Carnival segment.
• Macroeconomic and consumer sentiment risks: The company flagged ongoing uncertainty around consumer confidence, particularly among lower-income shoppers. Management noted that while product costs and tariffs have not yet materially impacted guidance, changes in consumer sentiment could affect back-to-school and holiday performance.
• Margin protection and inventory discipline: By securing inventory early at favorable costs and maintaining flexibility in working capital, management aims to sustain or improve merchandise margins even as SG&A rises due to rebanner investments. Cost discipline and inventory agility are expected to help navigate any further market or supply chain disruptions.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Over the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and performance of additional Shoe Station conversions, (2) trends in consumer sentiment—especially during the back-to-school and holiday periods, and (3) the company’s ability to maintain or improve merchandise margins despite rising costs and industry volatility. Execution on the rebanner rollout and early signals from newly converted stores will be key areas to watch.

Shoe Carnival currently trades at a forward EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.6×. At this valuation, is it a buy or sell post earnings? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

High Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs.

While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.