KBRA releases research on exposure in its rated universe of commercial real estate (CRE) securities and single-family rentals (SFR) to Hurricane Milton. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall tonight, just less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 4 storm. Milton is heading toward Tampa and has the potential to be one of west-central Florida’s most destructive hurricanes on record. When it makes landfall, forecasters expect it will likely be a Category 3 hurricane. Six million people across 11 Florida counties are under mandatory evacuation orders as of October 8.

KBRA identified loans within our rated universe of CRE securities—including conduit, Freddie Mac, single borrower (SB), and CRE collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions—along with SFRs that have exposure to the 11 at-risk Gulf Coast counties. In total, these transaction types accounted for $261 billion. These counties all have mandatory evacuation orders and are expected to be the ones most immediately impacted by the hurricane’s landfall and storm surge. Our analysis indicates that 305 out of 658 KBRA-rated deals have underlying loan collateral within the 11 Florida counties. Their total loan balance exposure is $8.4 billion across a total outstanding transaction balance of $261 billion for the five transaction types listed, resulting in a 3.2% exposure rate. KBRA will continue to monitor the situation and review servicer information as it becomes available to better understand the extent of the damage and determine any potential impacts on ratings.

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About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU, and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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