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Dear Apple Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for January 29

With earnings season well underway, investors looking at many of the top names in the market are now salivating at the potential earnings these companies will report over the course of the coming weeks. Apple (AAPL) is one such company. The stock surged to a recent all-time high, before falling from its peak amid concerns of macro conditions deteriorating. 

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Now, plenty of investors have benefited from holding the leader in equity markets in market capitalization terms (for most of recent history) in their portfolios. But with concerns around valuations now picking up, the question is whether Apple and its peers are worth investing in ahead of what could be a volatile and contentious earnings season. 

 

With Apple set to report earnings on Jan. 29, let's dive into what investors should watch heading into this print. 

AAPL Stock: What To Watch

The major story this earnings call will likely be around whether Apple has transitioned from a mature hardware company to a structurally higher-margin AI and services platform. I think Apple is one of those companies that will be valued in the eye of the beholder, so it's a buyer-beware scenario.

On the one hand, you have an artificial intelligence (AI) narrative that's been built up among most mega-cap tech stocks, in which earnings are expected to grow at an outsized pace for some time, benefiting investors. On the other hand, you have some in the market who think that any of these gains from AI could be offset by lower consumer spending, as more and more consumers are left out of the economic game. 

With the consensus analyst estimate pointing at 11% year-over-year revenue growth and similar returns on the company's bottom line this upcoming quarter, Apple's ability to beat earnings could matter more than it has in a long time. The company is expecting services revenue to surpass the $100 billion mark for 2025 for the first time in a fiscal year, and that would be a big win for investors overall.

What Do the Fundamentals and Analysts Have to Say?

I'm of the view that on most objective metrics, Apple stock has remained very expensive for much of the past decade. 

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Trading at 31x forward earnings with little in the way of top and bottom line revenue growth in recent years, Apple stock is expensive. That said, if the company can piggy back off of some intense spending from other AI peers and integrate this technology within its current product portfolio, the expectation is that Apple could ultimately win in the AI race. 

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With 42 analysts covering Apple stock presently, it's hard to suggest that this is a company with a consensus price target that can be disputed. When 42 individuals who know the markets intimately input their price targets publicly, you know that this is where the “smart money” investors are betting Apple can head over the near-term. 

Thus, the fact that the consensus price target on AAPL stock currently sits at nearly $290 per share (implying upside of about 17% from current levels), it's clear that some of the best minds in finance believe better times are ahead for the iPhone maker. 

I'm on the fence with Apple right now. I can see both the bull and the bear cases around this stock. Ultimately, I think the macro environment is likely to dictate the direction of travel for this name over the course of the next year, so I'm on the sidelines for the time being. 


On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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