The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.62%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.16%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.59%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +1.14%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, led by strength in chip makers, megacap technology stocks, and AI-infrastructure companies.  Also, strength in European stocks today is providing carryover support to US equity markets after the Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new record high.

Higher bond yields are a negative factor for stocks as the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 1.5-week high today at 4.19%.

The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was kept unrevised at 51.8, right on expectations.

The markets are discounting the odds at 15% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new all-time high and is up by +0.99%.  China’s Shanghai Composite and Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 are closed today for the New Year’s Day holidays.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) are down -2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.8 bp to 4.163%.  Mar T-notes fell to a 1.5-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-week high of 4.191%.  T-notes are modestly lower today as stock market strength has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt securities.  Also, rising inflation expectations are weighing on T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2.5-week high today at 2.259%. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1.5-week high of 2.910% and is up +3.0 bp to 2.885%.  The 10-year UK gilt climbed to a 1.5-week high of 4.530% and is up +3.2 bp to 4.511%.

The Eurozone Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 48.4 from the previously reported 49.2.

The Eurozone Nov M3 money supply rose +3.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.7% y/y and the highest in four months.

The UK Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.6 to 50.6 from the previously reported 51.2.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today to lead the overall market higher.  Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and ASML Holding NV (ASML) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Alethia Capital double-upgraded the stock to buy from sell with a price target of $1,500.  Also, Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +7%, and Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +6%.  In addition,  Applied Materials (AMAT), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +4%, and Western Digital (WDC), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), and Broadcom (AVGO) are up more than +3%. 

The Magnificent Seven stocks are climbing today, helping lift the broader market.  Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are up more than +2%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are up more than +1%.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) is up +0.31%. Bucking the trend, Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.67% and Meta Platforms (META) is down -0.57%. 

Insurance stocks are under pressure today.  Progressive (PGR) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500.  Also, Erie Indemnity (ERIE) is down more than -2%,  and Allstate (ALL), Hartford Insurance Group (HIG), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), and Travelers (TRV) are down more than -1%.

Sable Offshore (SOC) is up more than +18% after a federal appeals court said the company can restart its California pipeline and can begin pumping oil from its three platforms off the coast of Santa Barbara, California.

RH (RH) is up more than +7%, and Wayfair (W) is up more than +5% after President Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture until next year. 

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is up more than +7% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $200.

Earnings Reports(1/2/2026)

Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR).

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