The wheat complex is showing losses so far on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures are showing 2 to 3 cent losses so far on the day. KC HRW futures are down 6 to 7 ¼ cents so far on Tuesday. MPLS spring wheat is showing fractional losses at midday.

The 7-day forecast from NOAA shows very little precip in the Southern Plains over the next week, with light totals in the SRW area.

USDA showed no changes the 2025/26 US wheat output, as feed and residual was trimmed by 20 mbu on the balance sheet to 100 and carryover from 2024/25 was up 4 mbu. That took US wheat ending stocks up 25 mbu to 926 mbu per the WASDE report. World wheat stocks were raised by another 3.38 MMT to 278.25 MMT.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 wheat stocks at 1.675 bbu, above the average guess of 1.636 bbu. That was also 107 mbu above the same period last year. 

Russia’s wheat export projection for 2025/26 is estimated at 46.5 MMT by IKAR, up from their previous estimate of 44.1 MMT. European Commission data showed wheat exports at 11.6 MMT from July 1 to January 11, lagging the 11.8 MMT from last year.

Mar 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.09 1/4, down 2 cents,

May 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.20 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.19 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.31 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $5.65, down 3/4 cent,

May 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $5.76 1/4, unch,