• Since at least early October, I've written more about US soybeans than any other market. 

• The bottom line is the market has not changed a great deal fundamentally. 

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• The bottom bottom line is what changes have been seen are seasonal. 

To borrow a quote from fictional Cleveland Indian radio announcer Harry Doyle (played by the late Bub Uecker, the real play-by-play announcer for the Milwaukee Brewers for more than 5 decades): In case you hadn’t noticed, and judging by the readership numbers you haven’t, I have been talking a lot about the soybean market lately. If I go back only as far as October 1, 2025, the day the US government was shut down and the world’s largest buyer got busy covering secondary supply needs under cover of darkness, I’ve written about the soybean market no less than 7 times^[i]. Most recently, this past Monday when I discussed the question of, “What Spiked the Soybean Market – Again?”.

The bottom line of all I’ve written over the past couple months is fundamentally the US soybean market hasn’t changed. That the latest “deal” between the US and China, brokered by the artist known as the US president himself, was a clear win for China in that it did not require the purchase of physical US soybean supplies, but rather could be filled by the purchase of futures contracts. Additionally, just likely the previous and similarly overhyped Phase One trade agreement from January 2020 the latest “deal” allowed China to buy from the most competitive market. And according to a comparison of soybeans from Brazilian ports and the US Port of New Orleans, it’s no contest with Brazil the lower priced.

Given all this, what do I think of this week’s announced sales to China? For the record, Tuesday saw an announcement of 792,000 mt (29.1 mb) followed by Wednesday’s 330,000 mt (12.1) mb. To quote Twain; no, not the legendary writer and humorist Samuel Longhorn Clemens (aka Mark), but rather the songstress Eileen Regina Edwards (aka Shania), “That don’t impress me much…”. 

Due to the recent US government holiday – I mean shutdown – the latest official export sales and shipments numbers were through Thursday, September 25. (The next set will be released Thursday, November 20, if the government is still open.) Basically through the end of September: 

• China had no US soybeans on the books for the 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 marketing years
• The US had shipped no soybeans to China during the first month of the 2025-2026 marketing year

A look back at the same week the previous marketing year: 

• Weekly sales were 1,443,500 mt (53 mb), with 725,700 mt (27 mb) to China
  • China had 7,039,100 mt (259 mb) of US soybeans on the books
  • As compared to the same week the previous year (2023-2024 marketing year) of 7,048,200 mt (259 mb)
• Weekly shipments were 724,700 mt

Fast forward to what would usually be numbers for the week ending Thursday, November 13, and last year USDA reported for the week ending Thursday, November 14: 

• Weekly sales of 1,860,600 mt (68.4 mb)
  • With China accounting for 1,197,100 mt (44.0 mb)
• And Shipments of 2,447,800 mt (89.9 mb)
  • With 1,507,700 mt (55.4 mb) to China

How did we know China got busy covering secondary supplies during a time of year when it normally buys some of its secondary supplies, and started shipping some of those secondary supply purchases while nothing was being reported: 

• The January futures contract (ZSF26) rallied $1.57 off its late September low through this week’s high (so far) while
• The National Soybean Index ($CNSI) rallied $1.62 from September 30 through November 17
• Meaning national average basis firmed versus the January futures contract by 5.0 cents

I know what you are saying, “Basis firming is bullish! Bullish!! Bullish!!!” My answer, “Not necessarily. If we apply seasonal analysis we see: 

• January futures tend to gain 3% from the last weekly close of September through the third weekly close of November (this week)
  • This year (2025) has seen the January contract gain roughly 13% through Monday’s high
  • Though we don’t know where the contract will close this week
• The National Soybean Index tends to gain 5% over the same time frame
  • With this year showing the Index with a gain of 16% through Monday’s calculation
• As we can see, national average basis tends to firm during October and November
  • With the previous 10-year average weekly close showing strengthening of about 8.5 cents 

The bottom bottom line then is this: What we have seen in the soybean market is not surprising, nor all that impressive. It is seasonal. We’ll see what happens next. 

^[i] From November 6, November 2, October 31, October 27, October 15, and October 2.

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