What Happened?

Shares of restaurant company Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ: CBRL) fell 2.1% in the afternoon session after analysts lowered their price targets for the company, signaling concern about its near-term financial outlook. 

Specifically, UBS adjusted its price target on the stock down to $30 from $48, while maintaining a Neutral rating. This followed a move from the previous day when Truist Securities also reduced its price target to $50 from $58. Truist cited a challenging outlook and expectations that Cracker Barrel would miss same-store sales and earnings per share forecasts in its upcoming report. The combined price target reductions highlighted analysts' reevaluation of the company's market prospects.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Cracker Barrel’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 39 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 9 months ago when the stock gained 21.9% on the news that the company served up a standout second quarter (fiscal 2025), crushing Wall Street's estimates on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 19.6%, driven by strong restaurant sales growth and pricing optimization that helped offset inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, the company raised its full-year sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range above prior estimates, signaling confidence in growth. With the broader restaurant industry feeling the pinch from economic pressures, execution will be key to keeping this momentum going. Overall, this was a solid quarter, with encouraging outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Cracker Barrel is down 48.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $28.25 per share, it is trading 60.7% below its 52-week high of $71.86 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Cracker Barrel’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $199.48.

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