Vancouver, Canada – In a significant move to bolster North American critical mineral supply chains, Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, NYSE: TECK) is deeply engaged in strategic discussions with both the United States and Canadian governments. These high-stakes dialogues, unfolding against a backdrop of escalating global demand and geopolitical tensions, aim to secure a stable and diversified supply of minerals essential for defense, advanced technology, and the burgeoning clean energy transition. The urgency of these conversations underscores a collective recognition that securing these foundational resources is paramount to national economic security and technological sovereignty.

The discussions center on establishing robust frameworks, including potential direct supply agreements and financial mechanisms like guaranteed minimum prices and production-linked tax credits, to enhance domestic stockpiling and production capabilities. As of October 10, 2025, the focus is sharpened by the ongoing regulatory review of a proposed merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American (LSE: AAL), a deal poised to create a global powerhouse in critical minerals, particularly copper. This strategic alignment could profoundly reshape the global critical minerals landscape, offering North America a stronger hand in a market increasingly dominated by a few key players.

Strategic Dialogues and a Shifting Global Landscape

Teck Resources' active participation in these strategic discussions highlights a concerted effort by Western nations to de-risk their critical mineral supply chains, particularly in light of increasing export restrictions from countries like China, which has historically held significant sway over the supply of several key minerals. The company has specifically put forth recommendations for a Canadian Strategic Metals Reserve, advocating for a comprehensive framework that includes floor-price agreements, production-linked tax credits, and federal procurement backing to support the domestic stockpiling of strategic materials such as germanium, antimony, and gallium. These minerals are vital for semiconductors, advanced defense applications, and 5G technology, making their secure supply a matter of national security.

A pivotal element influencing these ongoing discussions is the proposed "merger of equals" between Teck Resources and Anglo American. This ambitious plan seeks to forge a new "global critical minerals champion," primarily focused on copper—a metal indispensable for the energy transition—along with other essential metals. The combined entity, tentatively named Anglo Teck Group, would be headquartered in Vancouver. This proposed consolidation is currently undergoing rigorous regulatory review by the Canadian government, which is meticulously assessing its alignment with Canada's critical minerals strategy, national security concerns, including economic security, and its potential to generate significant job creation and economic benefits within Canada. As part of their commitment, the companies have pledged approximately $4.5 billion in Canadian spending over five years, encompassing investments in critical minerals exploration, technological advancements, and upgrades to key facilities like Teck’s Trail smelter.

Teck's CEO, Jonathan Price, has been vocal about the company's potential to meet the germanium needs of North America, and even the entire G7 nations, signaling a clear strategic intent by Western countries to diversify and stabilize their critical mineral supply chains away from over-reliance on dominant suppliers. However, Price has also expressed concerns that Canada's allocated C$4 billion over eight years for critical mineral development falls short when compared to the annual investments made by countries like China. He argues for more ambitious, targeted government incentives and investments to bolster North American critical minerals capacity and streamline cumbersome regulatory processes, which he believes currently lag behind investments in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing plants.

The urgency driving these strategic discussions is further underscored by the unprecedented and rapidly escalating global demand for critical minerals. This surge is predominantly fueled by the expansion of the technology sector and, more significantly, the accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources and a low-carbon economy. Minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite are indispensable for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, with lithium demand alone projected to increase over 40 times its current levels by 2050 to meet net-zero emissions targets. Rare earth elements are crucial for wind turbines and EV motors, while copper remains the backbone of all electricity-related technologies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported robust growth in critical mineral demand in 2023, with projections indicating a nearly quadrupling of overall mineral demand for clean energy technologies by 2040. This escalating demand, coupled with the concentrated refining and processing in a few countries, elevates critical minerals to a paramount national economic and security interest, driving urgent efforts to secure and diversify supply chains.

Potential Winners and Losers in the Critical Minerals Race

The intensified focus on North American critical mineral supply chains, coupled with the proposed Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, NYSE: TECK) and Anglo American (LSE: AAL) merger, is poised to create a significant ripple effect across various industries, establishing clear winners and losers in the evolving global resource landscape. The primary beneficiaries are expected to be domestic mining companies, technology firms, and defense contractors who can secure reliable access to these essential materials.

Among the mining companies, MP Materials (NYSE: MP), North America's largest rare earths producer, stands to gain substantially. Operating the Mountain Pass mine in California, MP Materials is strategically integrating vertically to produce rare earth magnets domestically, a move bolstered by significant government funding and a supply agreement with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Similarly, USA Rare Earth (USAR), developing a vertically integrated domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, and Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (NYSE American: IDR), with its significant rare earth element exploration properties, are well-positioned. Companies like United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE American: UAMY), the sole antimony smelter in the U.S. and Mexico, and Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSEAmerican: TMQ), which has received direct U.S. government investment for its Alaskan copper and zinc projects, will also benefit from the drive for domestic supply. In Canada, Green Technology Metals (ASX: GT1), focusing on lithium projects in Ontario, is pursuing an integrated mine-to-chemical strategy for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, securing an offtake agreement with LG Energy Solution (KRX: 373220).

The proposed $50-53 billion merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American, which is now reported as agreed, is set to create a new mining giant, "Anglo Teck," headquartered in Vancouver. This combined entity, poised to be among the top five global copper producers, will benefit from enhanced portfolio diversification, operational synergies estimated at $800 million in pre-tax annual savings, and increased scale, particularly in copper production. Their strategic focus on copper and other critical minerals positions "Anglo Teck" favorably to meet demand from renewable energy, EVs, and green technologies, further strengthening Teck's ongoing discussions with the U.S. and Canada for critical mineral supply. This mega-merger could also trigger further consolidation in the mining industry, making smaller players with valuable deposits attractive acquisition targets.

Conversely, companies heavily reliant on uninterrupted, low-cost critical mineral imports from China, without diversified supply chains, could face increased costs and supply disruptions due to tariffs, export restrictions, and geopolitical tensions. Major mining competitors in copper and zinc, such as BHP (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO), and Glencore (LSE: GLEN), could face heightened competition from the newly formed "Anglo Teck" powerhouse. These companies, some of whom previously made bids for Teck, have missed a significant strategic opportunity, potentially forcing them to seek other growth avenues. Furthermore, smaller mining companies, while some may become acquisition targets, could struggle to compete with the sheer scale and financial prowess of the merged entity, particularly in securing capital or developing new large-scale projects.

Wider Significance and Geopolitical Chessboard

The strategic maneuvers by Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, NYSE: TECK) and the governments of the U.S. and Canada transcend mere corporate dealings; they represent a critical inflection point in global resource geopolitics. This event fits squarely into broader industry trends defined by the accelerating global energy transition, which demands unprecedented quantities of critical minerals for electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced technologies. The projected 400-600% increase in demand for rare earth elements and up to 4,000% for lithium and graphite in EV batteries over the coming decades underscores the profound shift occurring in industrial supply chains.

The ripple effects of securing critical mineral supply chains are vast, impacting competitors, partners, and the overall balance of global power. The geographic concentration of mineral extraction and, more critically, processing—with China holding near-total dominance in rare earth processing and significant shares in strategic battery minerals—has created market fragility and geopolitical leverage. This has spurred Western nations to pursue "derisking" strategies, reducing reliance on single dominant suppliers, and "friendshoring," collaborating with trusted allies like Canada and Australia. For competitor nations lacking domestic reserves or processing, disruptions can lead to significant economic impacts, driving them to diversify or face substantial economic output reductions. Conversely, resource-rich developing nations gain increased strategic leverage, becoming key partners in building diversified supply chains.

In response to these trends, governments worldwide are actively developing sophisticated legal frameworks and policy instruments. The European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act and the U.S. Critical Minerals Strategy, alongside initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), aim to encourage domestic production, processing, research, and recycling, while fostering international cooperation. These policies often include investment incentives, such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, and a growing emphasis on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards to ensure responsible and sustainable mining practices. The imposition of export controls by some mineral-rich nations, as seen with graphite, gallium, and germanium, further highlights the urgency of these policy shifts.

Historically, the current drive for critical mineral security echoes past instances of resource nationalism and strategic competition. The U.S. Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpiling Act of 1939, enacted at the onset of World War II, and the Defense Production Act of 1950 during the Korean War, both recognized that low commercial reserves posed a direct threat to national security, underscoring a long-standing understanding of material importance for military readiness. The present geopolitical competition over critical minerals is often compared to the 20th-century struggles over oil and gas, now seen as foundational to the 21st-century economy. This era marks a return to state intervention in mineral markets, reversing decades of global economic integration and signifying a fundamental shift in international relations driven by wider geopolitical tensions.

What Comes Next: Navigating the Future of Critical Minerals

The strategic discussions involving Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, NYSE: TECK) and the proposed Anglo American (LSE: AAL) merger signify a pivotal moment for the future of critical mineral supply chains in North America. In the short term, the focus will remain on solidifying government initiatives and funding, such as the U.S. Defense Production Act and Canada's Critical Minerals Strategy, to accelerate domestic mining, processing, and recycling. Efforts to streamline the notoriously lengthy permitting processes for new mines will be crucial, alongside the establishment of strategic mineral reserves to buffer against immediate supply shocks. The "friendshoring" approach, strengthening alliances with trusted partners like Australia, will continue to be a key strategy to diversify supply.

Looking long-term, the vision is to cultivate a robust, sustainable, and self-reliant critical mineral ecosystem across North America. This necessitates building an integrated value chain, from upstream exploration and extraction to midstream processing and refining, which currently remains a significant weak point. A comprehensive circular economy model, encompassing responsible mining, advanced recycling, and urban mining, will be essential for long-term sustainability and reduced environmental impact. Investment in technological innovation, such as deep-sea mineral exploration and alternative materials research, coupled with critical workforce development, will underpin this strategic pivot. The ultimate goal is a fundamental geopolitical rebalancing, reducing reliance on dominant suppliers and establishing new processing hubs within allied nations, a process that will require sustained collaboration over decades.

The market opportunities emerging from this shift are immense, driven by the projected six-fold increase in the energy sector's mineral needs by 2040 and the booming electric vehicle market. This creates significant economic growth and job creation potential across North America, attracting a surge in investment, particularly for projects that qualify for government support. However, formidable challenges persist, including North America's continued heavy reliance on external suppliers for processing, the long lead times and high costs associated with developing new mines, and persistent regulatory and environmental hurdles. Workforce shortages in mining engineering also present a critical bottleneck. The agreed-upon merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American, set to create the "Anglo Teck" entity headquartered in Vancouver, is a significant scenario that could accelerate project development and enhance supply chain security, particularly for copper and other critical minerals, aligning with governmental security objectives. However, it will undoubtedly face rigorous regulatory scrutiny to ensure it provides a net benefit to Canada and does not raise undue market concentration concerns.

Comprehensive Wrap-up: Securing the Future

The strategic discussions led by Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, NYSE: TECK) with the U.S. and Canadian governments, culminating in the proposed Anglo American (LSE: AAL) merger, mark a defining moment in North America's quest for critical mineral security. Key takeaways from these developments underscore a clear and urgent shift towards diversifying supply chains away from concentrated foreign sources, particularly China, to safeguard national economic and defense interests. The escalating global demand for critical minerals, driven by the clean energy transition and advanced technologies, has elevated these resources to a geopolitical imperative, reminiscent of historical struggles for vital raw materials.

Moving forward, the market for critical minerals is set to experience unprecedented growth and transformation. The formation of "Anglo Teck" promises a new global powerhouse, particularly in copper, which will significantly bolster North American supply capabilities. However, the path to self-sufficiency is fraught with challenges, including the need for substantial investment in domestic processing infrastructure, streamlined regulatory processes, and a skilled workforce. The emphasis on sustainable and ESG-compliant mining practices will also differentiate North American producers and shape future investment decisions.

The lasting impact of these events will be a more resilient, albeit potentially more expensive, critical mineral supply chain for North America and its allies. This strategic realignment aims to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions and ensure consistent access to materials vital for future economic growth and technological innovation. Investors should closely monitor regulatory approvals for the Anglo Teck merger, progress on government funding initiatives for critical mineral projects, and the development of new extraction and processing technologies. The long-term success of this strategic pivot will hinge on sustained collaboration between governments and industry, fostering a robust and integrated North American critical minerals ecosystem that can withstand future global shocks.

This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice