Over the past seven years, the worldwide smartphone market has contracted six times on an annual basis. However, 2024 is set to be the year where the smartphone market swings back to growth. According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.20 billion units in 2024, growing 2.8% year over year, followed by growth in the low single digits through 2028. While overall volumes are still below pre-pandemic levels, IDC believes the market has corrected itself and is moving on from the bottom.

"It's been a challenging run for the smartphone market, even when looking at the years leading into the pandemic," said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "While the world continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment, several device categories that compete for a share of wallet are seeing a return to growth, including personal computers. IDC firmly believes the smartphone will remain the quintessential device for most, but ongoing price increases and the improved durability of today's smartphones supports an already lengthened replacement cycle, which will dampen new shipment growth."

Device replacement cycles and rising demand in emerging markets are certainly key drivers to overall market recovery, but recent technological developments have brought new energy to the smartphone space. Most notably, foldable smartphones continue to grow rapidly with year-over-year growth of 37% expected and shipments reaching 25 million in 2024. In addition, artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become part of the smartphone discussion, sparking new interest in next-gen AI experiences on a handheld device.

"Although total smartphone shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels, the good news is that consumers are willing to pay more for their phones. This will be further fueled by innovations in foldables and the idea of next-gen AI on a device," said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "IDC forecasts 170 million next-gen AI smartphones will ship in 2024, representing almost 15% of the total smartphone market and surpassing even AI PCs. Next-gen AI smartphones will grow rapidly beyond 2024 as use cases evolve and industry players continue to push forward the NPU technology. While AI will impact all devices, smartphones will be the device driving the AI revolution into every home."

A graphic illustrating IDC's forecast for the worldwide smartphone market by operating system (Android and iOS) and average selling price (ASP) is available by viewing this press release on IDC.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

For more information about IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and jkliem@idc.com.

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About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

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View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240223551695/en/

According to a new forecast from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.20 billion units in 2024, growing 2.8% year over year.